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An endangered building in Malacca? (Christopher Chan, Flickr, CC)

Is it just a coincidence, a sign of growing frustration because of economic hard-times or a signal that South East Asia’s two main Muslim countries are following a dangerous path? In Indonesia, four women were arrested because of “sexy dancing“ in a bar in Jakarta. They could be the first people to go to court with charges concerning the controversial “anti-pornography-law“ that was introduced more than a year ago.

In neighbouring Malaysia, fanatics, presumably Muslims, vandalised and firebombed Christian churches. The reason: A High Court had ruled Christians are allowed to call god “Allah“ in their prayers.

Malaysia worries me more in this case: You have a shaky economic structure which still depends on   a cheap workforce and foreign investment, you have ethical tensions between the Muslim majority and the Indian and Chinese minority, and you have a disintegrating leading party (United Malaysia National Organisation) with a leader who might be tempted to play the race card to keep his base supporting him. In Indonesia, even though there are some strange court rulings and horrible regional laws (stoning!), you will find that most people are fed up with Islamic fundamentalism, even in rural areas. The country is more vulnerable by terror attacks than by political fundamentalism.

Still, South East Asia is a place to watch: The region is still comparatively volatile and will continue to depend a lot on the economic climate in China and the West.

Angela Merkel, noch nicht im Regen stehend (Foto: Spreepix, CC)

Ich habe es bereits öfter erwähnt: Die Union steht vor exakt den gleichen Problemen, die bereits länger die SPD heimsuchen. Einen Vorgeschmack darauf hat Angela Merkel in den jüngsten Debatten über den Konservatismus der Konservativen erhalten.  Eine ausführlichere Programmdiskussion wird ihr einmal mehr erspart bleiben, doch aufgeschoben ist nicht aufgehoben.

Die Macht Merkels liegt im Ungefähren, und auch der Union steht diese Unschärfe derzeit ebenfalls gut – die jüngsten Umfrageergebnisse von 41 Prozent zeigen das. Was die Bundeskanzlerin betreibt, ist Momentpolitik: Lange verharrt sie bewegungslos, um dann im richtigen Moment an die Öffentlichkeit zu treten. Allerdings meist nicht mit Entscheidungen, sondern mit Symbolgesten, die sich in diversen Gipfeln manifestieren. Entsprechend überschaubar waren die Ergebnisse von Schwarz-Rot, entsprechend katastrophal sieht es bei Schwarz-Gelb aus. In Merkels Momentpolitik ist kein Platz für Festlegungen oder klare Linien und wie schon die SPD während Rot-Grün muss die Union feststellen, dass in der Regierungsarbeit selten etwas von der Grundsatzprogrammatik der Oppositionsjahre übrig bleibt*.

Weil die Modernisierung auf den Moment angelegt ist, mangelt es ihr an langfristiger Wirkung. Wenn es Merkel nicht gelingt, das Fundament für eine neue Defintion von Konservatismus als Bürgerlichkeit zu legen,  wird der Kitt zwischen Pragmatikern, Wert- und Neokonservativen, Katholiken und Protestanten, Nationalen und Bürgerlichen spröde. Da die Union eine disziplinierte Partei ist, wären die Folgen erst nach der Rückkehr in die Opposition erkennbar. Sollten die Debatten über die Ausrichtung der Partei erst dann geführt werden, droht dies ein äußerst schmerzhafter Prozess zu werden.

*mal sehen, ob diese Aussage nach der NRW-Wahl im Mai auch noch gilt

The President and the country’s former first soldier square off in a crucial election – and the Tamil minority becomes kingmaker.

Even the challenger offers a grim outlook (via foto.rajith, Flickr, CC)

One year ago, Sri Lanka found itself in the middle of a military offensive that finally led them to win the 26-year war with the Tamil Tiger rebels in May. The government went out of its way to have no witnesses to commit war crimes, as a video that has since surfaced proves. The UN estimates that around 7,000 civilians were killed in the last weeks of the campaign then. The former head of the army, General Satah Fonseka, alleged that Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the Defence Minister, ordered the troops to kill surrendering Tiger leaders instead of taking them as prisoners in the final days of the war.

President Mahinda Rajapaksa denies all allegations, but also resists an independent investigation by the United Nations.  He has called for an early election as his popularity with the Sinhalese majority soared after the war. It will take place on January 26th.  The opposition candidate will be no other than General Fonseka himself, who stepped down from his army post in autumn.

The election campaign has been bitter, with the President’s camp trying to portrait the popular Mr. Fonseka as a traitor who did not have any say in what became the military campaign to defeat the Tamil Tigers. In a twist of bitter irony of this close race, both candidates court the Tamil minority – the very people who have been suffering badly and were largely ignored since the end of the war. Mr. Rajapaksa has eased travel restrictions for Tamil people and has allowed tens of thousands of civilians to return to their homes, after they had been stuck in detention camps for months.  Mr. Fonseka has gained the report of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the political arm of the Tamil Tigers, by committing himself to start a devolution of powers in the Tamil provinces (a step the President condemns).

It is likely that the President will be forced into a second election round. But one should not put to much hope in both candidates’ promises, as they both are Sinhala supremacists who never showed much regard for the minorities in their country. Sooner or later, there might be devolution of powers in the Tamil north – but it might take years of peace to achieve it and neither Mr. Rajapaksa, nor General Fonseka are the right people to lead this process.

The killing of 17 Iraqi civilians by Blackwater guards will never become a court case.

“Like the people they were protecting, our Xe professionals were working for a free, safe and democratic Iraq for the Iraqi people. With this decision, we feel we can move forward and continue to assist the United States in its mission to help the people of Iraq and Afghanistan find a peaceful, democratic future.”

Joseph Yorio, CEO of Xe Services (formerly known as Blackwater)

On September 16th 2007, a group of Blackwater mercenaries accompanied a convoy of American diplomats through Baghdad. At a lively crossroad, they started shooting. 17 people were killed, all of which were civilians. As witnesses and the Blackwater guards themselves testified, there had been no attack, no provocation.

This crime will never be prosecuted, as a U.S. Judge has dismissed the case based on a formal defect. This decision may be legally correct, but it sheds a dark light on justice when it comes to outsourced military staff – and about the ability of the state attorneys to deal with such cases, as they knew beforehand there was a problem about the guards’ testimonials. And it leaves the Iraqi people once again with the impression America is a reckless occupying force, similarly to the colonial powers of the 19th century.

Blackwater might call themselves Xe Services now, they are still a shame. The U.S. government should should not award them any contracts, and finally bring evidence that Xe is not active any more in Pakistan, as some findings suggest. This company is a failure and a disgrace, and the way it seems to have acted as a spy-, murderer- and torture-subcontractor (I recommend this article by Jeremy Scahill for details), should alone be enough to boot them out and to rethink the strategy of outsourcing warfare to reckless mercenary companies.

In a second step, U.S. Congress and Senate should finally bring on a new version of the amendment to the  Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act from 2000. It had already passed Congress shortly after the shootings in 2007, but has not gone on from there, to my knowledge (please correct me in the comment section if I am wrong).

Further reading:

Francisco Saldaña – Private Military Contractors in Iraq
CRS background analysis from September 2009

Note: The video above is from 2008.