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Sri Lanka’s army is close to defeating the Tamil Tigers. As the country’s president does not look for reconciliation, it may just be the beginning of another phase of the conflict.

The past, but maybe the future, too? (via Springm, Flickr)

It should only be a matter of days, maybe a few weeks until the Sri Lankan government will declare victory over the Tamil Tigers. The army has closed in on the LTTE-fighters in the north-east, having captured Mullaitivu, the last Tigers stronghold.

But the victory comes at a high price and it is not sure whether there will be any winners in the long term. 70,000 have been killed since the beginning of the conflict in 1983, death tolls have been rising since the conflict escalated in 2005. Currently, the violence is as wide-scaled as it has not been for years: On Sri Lankan independence day, at least 52 people were killed in artillery-fire, there are many more reports of killings, maybe massacres to come out as soon as independent observers and journalists will be let into the region again.

Though president Mahinda Rajapaksa has asked refugees to return home, the government’s policy does not look like it will include reconciliation with the Tamil minority, as the Sinhalese members will make sure to keep the Tamils down. Over the last few years, there have been accusations of the government killing Tamil youths, at the same time, the Tigers have become experts in suicide bombing, which includes continued attacks against civilians. With no post-war options, no leaders  and ongoing suppression by the country’s majority, some Tamil may be poised to fight a bloody and cruel Guerilla war for years.

For Mr. Rajapaksa, acting as the tough guy by ending the ceasefire and the political road to solve the conflict peacefully in 2005 (his step was also provoked by reports about the Tigers’ rearmament) will pay off in the short term: Allegations about governmental corruption will not matter in the elections he will call in a few weeks. As the war’s winner, he does not have to change his policy, including the repression of the free press which has already lead to the killing of the prominent government critic Lasantha Wickramatunge in January.

Mr. Rajapaksa’s hard stance against partial devolution in the North may be justified in the eye of the Sinhala people and international countries; its consequences will be repression, inner instability and the breeding of new terrorism, though.

Tags: civil war, Lasantha Wickramatunge, LTTP, Mahinda Rajapaksa, Sinhalese, Sri Lanka, Tamil, Tamil Tigers

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 21:12 and is filed under Horizon and beyond (English), The Globe (English). You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.