Context collapse and context restoration (Nicholas Carr)
Warum teilen wir immer weniger Privates auf Facebook? Nicholas Carr:
„We’re learning how difficult and exhausting it is to sustain a mass-media presence. The problem with broadcasting everyday experience is that everyday experience is inevitably repetitive, and repetitiveness is, in a media context, the kiss of death. To remain interesting when viewed at a distance, when viewed through media, a person has to display continuing novelty — novelty of experience, novelty of thought. Very few of us can do that for very long. I imagine that, on Facebook, even Oscar Wilde and Dorothy Parker would have worn out their welcomes after a while.“
Nicht der einzige Grund, aber definitiv Teil der Erklärung.
Apple Earnings: Bad News and Good News (Beyond Devices)
„The most important thing to understand about iPhone growth is that it’s temporary and cyclical. That is, the massive growth Apple experienced over the last 18 months or so was entirely down to the introduction of larger phones, and demand is now simply returning to its prior trajectory. The iPhone shipments number Apple reported was bang on with the projections I shared earlier this week and therefore also absolutely in line with the pre-iPhone 6 trend. That suggests (and Apple’s guidance for next quarter confirms) that iPhone growth should be back on track later this year, at high single digits or low double digits. The iPhone SE will depress margins, especially because it’s going to sell best during the annual trough in high-end sales, but for the same reasons, ASPs should recover by the end of the year when a new flagship phone launches. In the meantime, it should help fill that usual trough in sales a little, boosting sales above where they would otherwise be.“
Es sind sehr viele hohle Apple-Analyse zu lesen, die hier ist gut. Marktsättigung und China sind ein Problem, aber der Upgrade-Zyklus funktioniert bestens. Wenn die Zahlen zu Q4/16 kommen, werden wir wieder all die Comeback-Storys lesen (*seufz*).
Anticipating artificial intelligence (Nature)
Editorial der Nature-Redaktion zu künstlicher Intelligenz:
„There are more immediate risks, even with narrow aspects of AI that can already perform some tasks better than humans can. Few foresaw that the Internet and other technologies would open the way for mass, and often indiscriminate, surveillance by intelligence and law-enforcement agencies, threatening principles of privacy and the right to dissent. AI could make such surveillance more widespread and more powerful.
Then there are cybersecurity threats to smart cities, infrastructure and industries that become overdependent on AI — and the all too clear threat that drones and other autonomous offensive weapons systems will allow machines to make lethal decisions alone.“
Überraschend, wie klar sich Nature positioniert. Ich war diese Woche mal wieder auf einer Tech-Konferenz (Collision) und die Debatte ist wirklich über den Punkt „wir sollten eine Debatte haben“ hinaus. Die Frage ist, wie sich in solche komplexe Systeme Ethik einspeisen lässt. Regulierung? Selbstverpflichtung? Design-Guides?
As with Home24 or Westwing they are not reporting the total customer base vs. active customer base. I can only assume this is because the ratio is somewhat shocking and is not supporting the business model or at least not the valuation of > EUR 3bn. In this case they are reporting only the last quarter of existing customers and everyone that did an order — no matter if the user paid for it or not. Again the question is: Why is Rocket choosing different metrics for their MVP?
Der Autor kommt aus dem Lieferando-Lager, das sollte man beim Lesen beachten. Rocket ist auf fast jeder Ebene undurchsichtig, und das trotz IPO. Wird es den Laden in dieser Form noch in zehn Jahren geben?